INSIGHTS

Coyotes at the Gates

Guatemala is becoming a frontline in the fight against human smuggling.

In 2023, U.S. border officials recorded more than 2.4 million migrant encounters at the southern border — a stark indicator of a crisis far bigger than lines at a crossing point. Behind each encounter is a sprawling transnational network that profits from desperation. Human smuggling, once a localized hustle, has ballooned into a $13 billion global industry. Central America has become one of its most active corridors, with smugglers — known locally as coyotes — charging more than $20,000 per migrant to navigate an increasingly militarized route north. That’s roughly five years’ income for many rural Guatemalans. The cost is not only financial: families fall into debt traps or are coerced into forced labor arrangements to pay off smugglers. 

The U.S. is shifting its strategy. Complementing its increased deterrence and border enforcement efforts, the U.S is working to dismantle transnational criminal networks at the source. As part of this strategy, Dexis implements a data-driven approach in Guatemala aimed at disrupting criminal groups before migrants ever set foot in Mexico and the United States.

The program blends intelligence-led policing with digital infrastructure and cross-border cooperation. Guatemalan law enforcement, particularly the National Civil Police, is now supported with threat assessments, risk analysis, and cybersecurity upgrades. Dexis has also equipped Guatemala’s migration management agency with an IT system, MIROS-GT, that allows it to seamlessly manage migration flows. These systems make it possible for U.S. and Guatemalan agencies to share information in real time and to target MS-13, Barrio 18, and other transnational gangs.

At the helm is Héctor Lombardo Morales, a seasoned Guatemalan prosecutor and security expert. Mr. Morales has helped design and implement policies to investigate human trafficking, illegal migrant smuggling, and immigration fraud. His background includes stints in Guatemala’s anti-narcotics and homicide units, coordination of the national Witness Protection Program, and certifications from the U.S. Marshals Service and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police.  

As a result of these efforts, Guatemalan authorities dismantled a major smuggling ring, arrested six coyotes, and seized $3 million in illicit profits. The approaches used by Dexis in Guatemala offer a blueprint for targeting transnational crime and managing migration in Central America. Stopping smugglers at the source may be the most cost-effective and humane response to irregular migration. While long-term success depends on institutional reform and economic opportunity, this shift from reactive enforcement to proactive disruption suggests the U.S. is beginning to treat human smuggling less like a border problem and more like what it truly is: a transnational criminal enterprise.